Week 12 NFL picks: Giants will make Warner feel a rush
Thursday, November 20, 2008, 10:15 a.m. ET
After a ho-hum set of matchups and results in Week 11, everything has been dialed up in Week 12. Of the full slate of 16 NFL games, 11 of them have teams favored by a touchdown or less.
Even with so many potentially close contests, it was still easy to see it's a very important week for two road teams that play their home games in Giants Stadium:
NFC Game of the Week
New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals. The last time the Giants played a game in Glendale, Ariz., they pulled a giant upset and came home as Super Bowl 42 champions. Eli Manning won MVP honors in the big game, something that his former Giants teammate, Kurt Warner, was able to do just eight years earlier as a Ram.
Manning has continued to play like a MVP, while Warner, as a Cardinal, is back to showing his old MVP form. That sets up a nice matchup of 9-1 against 7-3. This week's winning quarterback will be the one under less pressure from a pass rush and gets the most help from his running game.
That advantage clearly goes to Manning. On the ground, the Giants are averaging a dominant league-best 5.3 yards per carry, while the Cardinals have produced a league-worst 3.4 yards per carry. Manning will have the benefit of play-action, while Warner once again will need to drop back often in a one-dimensional passing mode.
Instead of trying to consistently win in coverage against Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, the Giants' defense will aggressively bring the heat on Warner, producing some key sacks and likely a few takeaways. The Cardinals' defense can also get after the QB, but the Giants excel at keeping Manning upright and running well out of passing formations. Giants 30, Cardinals 21.
AFC Game of the Week
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans. Doesn't it seem like the now 10-0 Titans are always needing to prove themselves worthy of being undefeated? When they were running the ball with ease and beating up on lesser teams with their defense, the question was could they win tougher games if opponents made Kerry Collins beat them. Since Week 17, they came back to beat the Colts, nipped the Packers in overtime, and rode Collins' arm to tough road victories at Chicago and Jacksonville.
So here comes another test, against the 7-3 Jets. New York's AFC team is hard to figure out. They've dropped 56 in beating the Cardinals, and scored only 13 in losing the Raiders. In general, they've played well when their defense and running game have clicked, taking pressure off Brett Favre. Because the Titans excel at diversifying their offense and stopping the run, Favre will need to deliver dropping back often against a good pass rush.
One key stat: The Titans, not surprisingly, are first in the NFL in turnover margin at plus-10. Look for them to turn a few giveaways into big plays that lead to a comfortable victory. Titans 24, Jets 17.
Reunions of the Week
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens. Ravens coach John Harbaugh, who worked under Eagles coach Andy Reid for nine years, hopes he will have a contender for many years with rookie quarterback Joe Flacco, much the way things have worked out for Reid and Donovan McNabb. McNabb, who may be near the end of his run, is struggling, as Philly's lack of a consistent running game is catching up to him.
Don't expect Brian Westbrook to suddenly explode on Baltimore's defense, because it will come home angry from being embarrassed at New York last week. That means Ray Lewis and friends will be flying to the ball looking to make big plays and capitalize on more McNabb turnovers. On the other side, Flacco will benefit from more great line play and more prolific running. Ravens 23, Eagles 13.
Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks. Redskins coach Jim Zorn, who worked under soon to be retired Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren for seven years, hopes he can get his version of the West Coast passing game back on track after a long trip to the other Washington. What will help is having Clinton Portis run well, setting up favorable play-action chances for Jason Campbell against a struggling Seahawks pass defense. As for the 'Hawks running game, it's far removed from how good it was when current Redskin Shaun Alexander was putting up big numbers. Redskins 17, Seahawks 14.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins. Patriots coach Bill Belichick, who worked under Dolphins executive vice president Bill Parcells for 10 years on three teams, saw his defense burned by the Dolphins' pesky "Wildcat" formation at home in Week 3, losing by a shocking 38-13 count. Now that the direct snap fun has spread, everyone is learning how to stop it, and Belichick is too smart to have his team be fooled so much again.
Belichick can still expect a tough defensive effort from Parcells' and Tony Sparano's team, but the renewed confidence and playmaking skills of Matt Cassel will help the Pats earn a season series split. Patriots 20, Dolphins 17.
Shootout of the Week
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints. Both teams average scoring around 27 points per game. Each will be fired up to light it up indoors on Monday night. Both quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees, are capable of monster passing numbers. The receivers and running backs are pretty good, too, and as an added bonus, the Packers' defense has produced nine touchdowns of its own this season.
The Pack got a much-needed dominant all-around performance at home against the Bears last week, and that should carry over nicely into this week. Like most everyone else, they'll still give up big plays and points to Brees, but the Saints have been mistake-prone all sseason, and Green Bay will be there to capitalize on returns -- both off interceptions and special teams. Packers 34, Saints 30.
Lock of the Week
Dallas Cowboys over San Francisco 49ers. Ah, remember when this was a lock for game of the week? This matchup has pretty much gone downhill ever since Terrell Owens left the ball on the Silver Star and eventually left the 49ers, eventually finding his way to Big D.
This is about the time of year Tony Romo comes home to roost, and his pinkie will be one week healthier, ready to burn the Niners' defense with downfield shots to Owens, Jason Witten and Roy E. Williams. Once that gets the Cowboys off to a fast start, they will turn the game over to Marion Barber's power running.
The one bright spot in the 49ers' offense has been Frank Gore. The Cowboys' defense will allow him to get his yards, but once the offense provides a big lead, their pass rush will tee off on Shaun Hill in frantic dropback comeback mode. Cowboys 38, 49ers 14.
Upset of the Week
Minnesota Vikings over Jacksonville Jaguars. Yes, it's a rather mild upset, but it wouldn't be a small achievement, because the Vikings are only 1-4 on the road. The Jaguars, however, are only 1-4 at home. Both teams have had very disappointing seasons, and their respective 5-5 and 4-6 records have come from playing too many close games, which tend to even out and lead to 8-8 seasons. The slight edge goes to the Vikes because their defense is playing better all-around than the Jags' and the fact they have a game-changing playmaker in Adrian Peterson. Vikings 23, Jaguars 20.
Game of Midweek
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger has had a rough four-game stretch in which the Steelers still managed to go 2-2. In those games, he has only one TD pass to go with 8 interceptions, taking 14 sacks in the process. His last solid Big Ben -like game, however, came against these very same Bengals in Week 7. It's the only game in which he hasn't been sacked this season, and when you can't bring him down, he tends to put up great stats.
His counterpart, Ryan Fitzpatrick won't be as lucky. The Eagles dropped him eight times last week, and he can expect to be dropped several more times by LaMarr Woodley, James Harrison and Pittsburgh's league-best pass rush. Steelers 23, Bengals 10.
Rest of the Week
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs. With an improved offense led by quarterback of the future Tyler Thigpen, the Chiefs continue to show fight, but they still don't have their second win to show for it. The similarly young Bills have been in a freefall since hitting division play. Even though Buffalo lost last Monday, it finally found its prolific running game with Marshawn Lynch. Lynch will pound away for more big yards, giving Trent Edwards more confidence to make some backbreaking big plays downfield. Bills 20, Chiefs 17.
Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams. The Bears showed little growl in Green Bay last week, but expect them to come out of hibernation in the warm confines of a dome against some ice-cold hosts. Matt Forte, Kyle Orton and the rest of Chicago's diverse offense will give the Rams fits all over the field, while the Bears will take out their frustrations against the Pack by smacking around Marc Bulger and Antonio Pittman. Bears 30, Rams 10.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns. The Texans have enough offensive pop, whether it's with Andre Johnson or Kevin Walter through the air or Steve Slaton by land to score points in bunches. The problem is, their defense continues to give up any points they get. With Brady Quinn building confidence and back at home, expect a big day out of his top target, Braylon Edwards. Jamal Lewis will then pound away on the Texans' defense late to whittle the clock. Browns 20, Texans 13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions. The Bucs have a tendency to let the opposition linger because they lack the explosive offense to consistently tack on some insurance scoring. Even with their running game having some injury issues, they can still win the game by protecting the ball and playing sound all-around defense, something the Lions are still incapable of doing. Buccaneers 23, Lions 20.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos. Mike Shanahan has his first-place team in position to solidify its standing, and the fact he has no love for the Raiders should keep the Broncos motivated to deliver a dominant performance at home. The much-maligned defense is starting to make key stops, and the running game found the right mix with Peyton Hillis, P.J. Pope and Tatum Bell last week. That's help Jay Cutler get back to his dangerous self. Broncos 31, Raiders 13.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons. The Panthers haven't played that well since their Week 9 bye but have survived thanks to Oakland, Detroit and a big-play running game. Now their final six games include four on the road, and every remaining opponent is at .500 or better. The Falcons are improved since they lost in Week 4 in Charlotte, as Matt Ryan has gained more experience and the defense has played better. Steve Smith still will give them fits, but the hosts will escape with a late touchdown. Falcons 24, Panthers 20.
Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers. Peyton Manning, meet an awful Chargers pass defense. LaDainian Tomlinson, meet a shaky Colts run defense. In prime time, that will have two of the league's brightest stars shining. San Diego took both meetings last season, and at home, in a back and forth offensive display, their desperate push to get back into the AFC playoff hunt will net a narrow last-possession victory. Chargers 27, Colts 24.
Stats of the Week
Week 11 straight up:
11-5
Season-to-date straight up: 104-56
Vinnie Iyer is a staff writer for Sporting News. Email him at viyer@sportingnews.com.
18
NFL Power Poll: Giants move to top of the line
Tuesday, November 18, 2008, 10:48 a.m. ET
They form the most dominant group in professional football, yet none of them made the Pro Bowl last season. They also tend to be overlooked because they happen to play on a team that also has a great defensive line.
So it's time to give the New York Giants' front five their mighty offensive line its due. After producing three straight games of at least 200 yards rushing, you can't help take notice. By name, in order from left to right tackle, they are: David Diehl, Rich Seubert, Shaun O'Hara, Chris Snee and Kareem McKenzie.
Because that quintet has looked unstoppable and unflappable, even in the face of the Baltimore Ravens' formidable run defense Sunday, it's put New York back at the top of the line going into Week 12:
1. New York Giants (Last week: 2). Need more evidence to support the blocking firm of Diehl, Seubert, O'Hara, Snee and McKenzie? The Giants' backs are averaging a league-best 5.3 yards per carry, while Eli Manning has been sacked only 12 times in 10 games.
2. Tennessee Titans (LW: 1). The NFL's lone undefeated team is still mighty up front, but the Giants now get the slight edge because they just proved they can run on anyone. Tackles Michael Roos and David Stewart are the perimeter pass protectors leading the way in allowing a league-low six sacks. Inside, 15th-year center Kevin Mawae is still blowing defensive tackles off the ball.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (LW: 4). They're still getting settled up front, as guard Chris Kemoeatu and Justin Hartwig are in their first years as the team's full-time starters, and injuries to tackles Max Starks and Marvel Smith have caused more shuffling. Big Ben is partially responsible for the sacks (35), but the line woes have also showed up in the league's 23rd-ranked running game.
4. New York Jets (LW: 8). The high-priced signing of left guard Alan Faneca has paid off. Working between young linemen D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold, he has helped the Jets improve from 18th (at 3.8 yards per carry) in rushing offense last season to 9th (at 4.4).
5. Carolina Panthers (LW: 3). The Panthers have had a surprising number of ups and downs for an 8-2 team, but the steadying factor is their sixth-ranked running game, with Jordan Gross, Travelle Wharton, Keydrick Vincent and rookie Jeff Otah all playing well, and not missing a beat at center regardless if Ryan Kalil or Geoff Hangartner starts.
6. Indianapolis Colts (LW: 13). Losing center Jeff Saturday earlier in the season really hampered Indy's line, but now he's back healthy and back to being an anchor, helping youngsters such as left tackle Tony Ugoh, left guard Charlie Johnson and rookie right guard Mike Pollak to jell. The result is a balanced, prolific Colts offense we're used to seeing.
7. Arizona Cardinals (LW: 9). The Cardinals' line was much maligned going into the season, but it's held up rather well in giving up 18 sacks for a very pass-happy offense. The running game remains anemic (3.4 yards per carry), however. Levi Brown, Deuce Lutui and friends better get ready for their biggest test so far against the swarming Giants this week.
8. Dallas Cowboys (LW: 14). More than the return of Tony Romo, it was good to see the Cowboys get on track with what their offense does best: pound away with Marion Barber. That's 1,634 pounds of push, and a power running game that can put any opponent away in the fourth quarter.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (LW: 10). The Bucs' line sneakily does a good job every week. They've nailed down the fundamentals of pass protection (only 11 sacks), but they can also get down and dirty with run blocking. Expect left guard Arron Sears, right Davin Joseph and right tackle Jeremy Trueblood to be long-term stars.
10. New England Patriots (LW: 6). The Patriots' pass protection woes from the Super Bowl have carried over a bit, as they've allowed 33 sacks, or as many as the Raiders. On the bright side, to take pressure off Matt Cassel, Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Stephen Neal and Nick Kaczur have risen as power run blockers.
11. Baltimore Ravens (LW: 5). Jonathan Ogden retired, but their line has still played awesome all season to produce a strong running game and help Joe Flacco get through a pretty good rookie year. Even in Sunday's blowout loss to the Giants, Flacco was sacked only once and the team managed 121 rushing yards.
12. Washington Redskins (LW: 7). Chris Samuels, Pete Kendall, Casey Rabach, Randy Thomas and Jon Jansen are at their best when blocking for the league's No. 5 running game, helping Clinton Portis average 4.9 yards per carry. The trouble comes when the Redskins need to drop back Jason Campbell often without the benefit of play-action he has been sacked 26 times.
13. Denver Broncos (LW: 19). With stud rookie left tackle Ryan Clady in front of him, Jay Cutler has hardly been touched (8 sacks). Now with a healthier, new mix of backs including hardnosed Peyton Hillis, it looks like the interior run blocking of Ben Hamilton, Casey Wiegmann and Chris Kuper is finally paying off.
14. Atlanta Falcons (LW: 11). Their most promising lineman, rookie tackle Sam Baker, hasn't been able to stay healthy, but the Falcons' front five has remained outstanding, led by left tackle Todd Weiner and left guard Justin Blalock. Rookie Matt Ryan has had the benefit of staying upright (only 12 sacks), and blocking for Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood, the team's running game is second only to the Giants'.
15. Green Bay Packers (LW: 21). Just like last season, the Pack's line is saving its best run blocking for the second half. Chad Clifton, Daryn Colledge, Scott Wells, Jason Spitz and Mark Tauscher are coming off their best collective game in pounding the Bears in route to 200 yards rushing. The sacks are up because Aaron Rodgers likes to keep plays alive with his mobility, but they need to limit the pounding on him.
16. Miami Dolphins (LW: 15). First overall draft pick Jake Long is probably the only household name on the Fins' offensive line, but it is an underrated young unit that will keep getting better. Center Samson Satele, right guard Ike Ndukwe and right tackle Vernon Carey are all very solid. It's helped the team produced a power running game that assists Chad Pennington well in play-action passing.
17. Chicago Bears (LW: 12). Everyone thought the strengths of this team would be the defense and running game, and there has been inconsistency in both areas. Rookie Matt Forte's versatility as a receiver has kept him productive while as a team, they're averaging 3.8 yards per carry. The Johns at the tackles, St. Clair and Tait have led a better charge in pass protection (only 18 sacks).
18. Minnesota Vikings (LW: 19). This is a tale of two lines. When Minnesota's line run blocks for either Adrian Peterson or Chester Taylor, it's awesome, led by left guard Steve Hutchinson and center Matt Birk. When it tries to protect aging Gus Frerotte, it has some trouble (28 sacks). Bryant McKinnie isn't the prototypical shutdown left tackle, and Ryan Cook is a weak link at right tackle.
19. New Orleans Saints (LW: 23). It's amazing that even though Drew Brees has attempted a league-high 398 passes, he's been sacked only eight times. Now they could use more pop from Jammal Brown, Jahri Evans & Co. for the No. 28 running game.
20. Buffalo Bills (LW: 18). Even with good talents such as Jason Peters, Derrick Dockery and Langston Walker, the line play has been a bit disappointing. Until breaking through Monday night, they had yet to help Marshawn Lynch to a 100-yard rushing game and the sack total was up to 25.
21. Philadelphia Eagles (LW: 16). With stalwarts such as William Thomas and Jon Runyan still at the tackles, the front five does it best to help Donovan McNabb (only 15 sacks). With guard Shawn Andrews hurting, Brian Westbrook has found less in the running game. The Eagles have gone from 8th in 2007 (at 4.7 yards per carry) all the way down to 26th this season.
22. San Diego Chargers (LW: 20). Even with talent such as tackle Marcus McNeill and Kris Dielman on the left side and center Nick Hardwick, the Chargers have had trouble getting LaDainian Tomlinson going on the ground, as they are 27th in the league in rushing. They're doing a much better job of keeping Philip Rivers clean. (only 14 sacks).
23. Cleveland Browns (LW: 24). With second-year tackle Joe Thomas dominating the left side, the Browns continue to keep the quarterback upright (only 12 sacks). The problem is, Cleveland isn't consistently producing on the ground. Having left guard Eric Steinbach banged up hasn't helped.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars (LW: 22). One reason for the Jags' offensive inconsistency, especially in the running game, has been key injuries to interior linemen Maurice Williams, Vince Manuwai and Chris Naeole. At least center Brad Meester has returned to help open holes for Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor.
25. Houston Texans (LW: 25). The Texans' pass protection reached a high in allowing only 22 sacks last season, but the total is back to 24 already. Still, with their potential for big numbers throwing and running, this is their best ever offensive line, led by rookie left tackle Duane Brown and left guard Chester Pitts.
26. San Francisco 49ers (LW: 27). They have a work in progress with their young line, including left tackle Joe Staley and left guard David Baas. They've actually been rather good in keeping Frank Gore consistently productive on the ground, and going to the more mobile and more decisive Shaun Hill at QB can only improve the poor pass protection (36 sacks allowed).
27. Cincinnati Bengals (LW: 30). The team has started two quarterbacks and two running backs, and not one of the four has gotten much help up front, despite the presence of veterans such as Levi Jones and Stacy Andrews. Cincy has backed up the 30th-ranked rushing attack by allowing a league-worst 38 sacks.
28. Kansas City Chiefs (LW: 29). The Chiefs have committed to rebuilding, and have recognized it on their offensive line. Guard Brian Waters is the veteran mainstay, while rookie left tackle Branden Albert and center Rudy Niswanger are the up-and-comers. A good sign is the group is improving at the same time the team may have found its QB of the future in Tyler Thigpen.
29. Seattle Seahawks (LW: 26). With Walter Jones, Mike Wahle, Sean Locklear and Pork Chop Womack, you would think this would be a more impactful line. It's really been above average, considering several injuries have caused some major shuffling among the offensive skill positions.
30. St. Louis Rams (LW: 28). Long gone are the days of Orlando Pace being a premier left tackle, and guard Richie Incognito and right tackle Alex Barron haven't lived up to their billing. The proof is allowing 32 sacks and blocking for the No. 25 running game.
31. Oakland Raiders (LW: 31). The Silver and Black have maintained a pretty good rushing attack despite injuries shaking up the backfield, but they continue to struggle when pass blocking, often on their heels. It's time to admit that the first-round draft picks on the left side, Kwame Harris (as a 49er) and Robert Gallery are busts and rebuild from there.
32. Detroit Lions (LW: 32). Despite having a tough young runner in rookie Kevin Smith, the team has produced the second-fewest rushing yards. It also has allowed the second-most sacks, 37. It has some long-time starters such Jeff Backus and Dominic Raiola, but the Lions need to continue the overhaul that started with drafting Gosder Cherilus in the first round.
Vinnie Iyer is a staff writer for Sporting News. Email viyer@sportingnews.com.
21
Patience a needed virtue for young Browns, Bills
Tuesday, November 18, 2008, 1:24 a.m. ET
The Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills turned the battle of Lake Erie into a last-possession thriller on Monday night. Although the Browns got the winning field goal the Bills couldn't quite get in a 29-27 victory, both teams gave a relentless four-quarter effort.
Along the way, there were good and bad moments for second-year quarterbacks Brady Quinn and Trent Edwards, as well as ups and downs on defense and special teams. It's what you would expect from two teams with young nuclei -- equal parts promise and youthful mistakes.
The Browns and Bills have two of the most passionate fan bases in the NFL. They are small-market teams with blue-collar supporters. They have rich traditions dating back to bygone leagues, and as the teams go, so go the moods of the towns.
There is a hunger in both locales to get back to the days of consistent success. Neither franchise has really been successful since the days when University of Miami quarterbacks starred for them. Cleveland had Bernie Kosar in its previous existence, while Buffalo had Jim Kelly in its four-Super Bowl heyday.
It has been a long time, but it's important for both franchises and their fans to be patient. Each team can build around a core of talented skill players. That means the franchises' front offices should avoid drastic measures and stick with Romeo Crennel and Dick Jauron as their respective coaches.
The Browns were the "it" team going into this season after finishing 10-6 last season. In 2007, they used a rather soft schedule to build their confidence and a playoff-caliber record. However, they hit a wall with a brutal slate of games in 2008.
The Bills are facing the same thing this season. Just like last year's Browns, they are going through the training-wheel phase of winning. Their five victories in '08: Seattle, Jacksonville, Oakland, St. Louis and San Diego. All five teams are now below .500, but it's not the Bills' fault that the Seahawks, Jaguars and Chargers have all dropped from their playoff perches.
Bills fans should keep in mind that it's still better to beat up on "bad" teams than it is to be one. The bigger wins will come in time. Remember that Edwards and running back Marshawn Lynch haven't even played two full NFL seasons. Second-year starting middle linebacker Paul Posluszny is in first full season. Look around the roster, and Jauron has plenty of similar standout youngsters.
The Browns' schedule has made them slide from 10-6 last year to 4-6 so far this season, but think about their biggest win of '08 -- on another Monday night against the reigning Super Bowl champion New York Giants. That came from the confidence of knowing they can be a good team, which came from racking up all those wins in '07.
That was even before they made the switch to their true quarterback of the future, Brady Quinn. Quinn won't be an immediate savior after two starts. It will take him time to jell with the Browns' other young offensive stars such as wide receiver Braylon Edwards, tight end Kellen Winslow and left tackle Joe Thomas. Third-year running back Jerome Harrison also is making a case that he should be featured more in '09.
Crennel, like Jauron, comes from a defensive background, and he also has some good young defenders to groom, including inside linebacker D'Qwell Jackson and cornerbacks Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald.
Too many NFL teams fall into the trap of impatience. They look for the quick fix and the instant gratification of a playoff appearance. Sometimes, in the Browns' case last season and the Bills' case from earlier this season, some surprising early success can lead to unreasonable expectations. You almost expect another young, rebuilding team from a hungry small market -- think the Kansas City Chiefs -- to go through a similar situation next season.
That's the way NFL scheduling works -- it's a sneaky means of providing surprise parity from one season to the next. The key isn't just getting in the playoffs to go one-and-done, but rather building a strong enough team to be in the championship hunt for several years -- to which end Cleveland and Buffalo are on the right path.
When watching the Browns and the Bills go at it in Orchard Park on Monday night, it was easy to spot plenty of playmakers on the field.
Quinn and Trent Edwards, though struggling with their accuracy, made some key throws in tough situations. Harrison and McKelvin hit game-changing home runs. Braylon Edwards, Winslow and Lynch all wowed with their athleticism. Jackson and Posluszny showed why they are prolific tacklers.
Sure, Phil Dawson came through from 56 yards and Rian Lindell couldn't answer from 47, but win or lose for either team, it was unlikely that either would make the playoffs.
The Browns learned an important lesson in how to finish games, something they didn't do against two other good teams, the Ravens and Broncos, in blowing 13-point second-half leads the previous two weeks.
The Bills, who got several of their wins thanks to Trent Edwards' fourth-quarter play, are in the midst of learning how to avoid slow starts. Learning how to win games in every which way will pay off down the line as both teams mature at the key positions.
Crennel and Jauron have something good brewing. It's important both coaches get the chance to see their labor bear fruit in a year or two.
Vinnie Iyer is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at viyer@sportingnews.com.
6
Week 11 NFL picks: Romo can cure what ails Cowboys
Thursday, November 13, 2008, 10:48 a.m. ET
Seven weeks, seven games left for every team in the NFL. That leaves plenty of time for teams that have underachieved in the first half of the season to right their wrongs and steer toward the playoffs.
Before the season, Dallas and San Diego got plenty of hype as the potential Super Bowl teams. Now with the New York Giants and Tennessee playing so well, it's hard to imagine they won't end up at the top of each conference.
So now it's up to the Cowboys and Chargers to get their respective acts and get into grooves to eventually get to the postseason, even if it's as a wild card. Not surprisingly, that puts each team in the two biggest games of the week:
NFC Game of the Week
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins. Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo got plenty of heat the way the team's past two playoff appearances have ended, but the fact is, we've seen what kind of team Dallas might be without Romo for a long term the past three games -- one that needs to win ugly. Romo's arm, mobility and playmaking knack are hard to find, and simply can't be found in the likes of Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger.
Romo has a special energy about him, an infectious love of playing the game, as his smile might indicate. He should provide a huge emotional lift for his Cowboys' teammates, before he even throws his first pass in his first game back. On the field, of course, he excels at getting the ball to all the team's downfield weapons, namely top wide receiver Terrell Owens and tight end Jason Witten.
Of course, stretching the field in that way opens up the power running game for Marion Barber, and Romo's ability to extend plays takes the onus off the Cowboys' pass protection. With Romo helping the 'Boys put up more points and potentially take a significant lead, it allows the Cowboys' defense to be in a more aggressive attack mode.
So the Redskins' defense will have its hands full, expecting the Cowboys to move the ball smoothly like Romo had never hurt his pinkie. The big question will be whether Jason Campbell can keep up, especially that it's a real possibility that the team's MVP, running back Clinton Portis, won't play to provide much-needed balance.
With the Giants dominating the NFC East, it's a race for the other teams in the division just to get a wild card. There's room for only two more at the most, and with what's happening in other divisions, maybe it will come down to one. Dallas takes a big step to resuscitate its promising season this week. Cowboys 27, Redskins 20.
AFC Game of the Week
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers. Remember what made the Chargers so successful the previous two seasons? It was the running game and defense, two things on which the Steelers also rely heavily.
Last season, the Steelers finished with the No. 3 rushing offense, while the Chargers, with LaDainian Tomlinson, weren't far behind at seventh. This season, the teams rank 24th and 25th, respectively. Pittsburgh has averaged an anemic 3.5 yards per carry with Willie Parker in and out of the lineup, and Tomlinson is having his worst statistical season at 29. So the pressure has been on 2004 first-round picks Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers to carry the offense.
Roethlisberger has taken a lot of hits and sacks, and now it's led to a bevy of interceptions. Rivers has been rather smooth for most of the year, but it hasn't been enough to get the Chargers a winning record.
So now let's talk defense, especially against the pass. The Steelers are first, the Chargers are worst. Expect Pittsburgh to slow down L.T. and put some good heat on Rivers. With Parker back to provide a big-play threat in the backfield, expect the Steelers to make things simpler for Roethlisberger so he can more quickly pick apart San Diego's pass coverage. Big Ben bounces back, while the pressure will get to Rivers. Steelers 24, Chargers 17.
NFC/AFC Game of the Week
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants. The physical battles up front will be fun to watch in this game, especially when the Giants' fine run-blocking offensive line is working to push the Ravens' stout run-stopping front seven out of the way. There should be plenty of thunder in Giants Stadium when big Brandon Jacobs collides with Ray Leis on a carry. Expect the Giants to find a way to grind out tough yardage when it counts.
The other key matchup will be the Ravens' pass protection against the Giants' pass rushers. Even if they don't get much on the ground, the Ravens need to stick with it toward the edges to wear down ends Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka. As long as they've been able to keep rookie Joe Flacco comfortable and upright to deliver the ball downfield, they have been successful. Still it's likely to come down to experience and who can make clutch plays in the second half, and that advantage goes to Eli Manning. Giants 20, Ravens 10.
Rivalry of the Week
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers. OK, it's more like the co-rivalry of the week, with Cowboys-Redskins also on the Week 11 slate, but it also has major NFC playoff implications. The 4-5 Packers were hoping to make this a first-place showdown, but last week's loss in Minnesota was a big blow to both their division and wild-card chances. Still, with two games left against the 5-4 North-leading Bears, they can make up some key ground against their archrivals, starting with this week at home. Expect Aaron Rodgers to rebound from the Metrodome at home, using his wideouts to burn the Bears' shaky corners and to outduel either Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman. Packers 24, Bears 20.
Shootout of the Week
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs. Drew Brees continues to put up astronomical passing yardage numbers, but it hasn't translated to the most important stat -- wins -- as turnovers are starting to take effect as well. He needs a steady presence from the backfield to help him, and Reggie Bush is expected to return just in time. No one on the Chiefs' defense can keep up with Bush. On the other side, K.C. now has the passing game with Tyler Thigpen throwing to Mark Bradley, Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe to make things interesting again in a high-scoring affair. Saints 30, Chiefs 27.
Lock of the Week
Carolina Panthers over Detroit Lions. Jake Delhomme and the Panthers got by with a shaky performance at Oakland last week, because, well, they were playing the Raiders. That will keep them hungry to put in a much better all-around performance against the NFC's version of a doormat at home this week. Expect DeAngelo Williams to again save the day with a big day, and Steve Smith will motor past the Lions for at least one big score. Panthers 37, Lions 10.
Upset of the Week
Seattle Seahawks over Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals will be coming off a short week and an emotional, tough, long Monday night win over another division foe, the 49ers. The Seahawks played well in Miami last week despite their continued rash of injuries, and this week, they're expected to have Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch back to headline their passing game. The Cards haven't been that great on the road, the combination of desperation and a hostile environment will help the 'Hawks prevail by a field goal. Seahawks 23, Cardinals 20.
Game of Midweek
New York Jets at New England Patriots. This sounds strange, but expect the Patriots to focus on taking away Thomas Jones and the Jets' running game to make Brett Favre beat them. They need to give their pass rushers up front and ballhawks in the secondary as many chances to make plays. On the other side, they need to get Matt Cassel into a quick rhythm to help him avoid the Jets' pressure, and that will mean plenty of quick passes to Wes Welker and Kevin Faulk along with much more on the ground from BenJarvus Green-Ellis. This feels like a last-season East Coast defensive tussle. Patriots 20, Jets 13.
Rest of the Week
Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons. Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler are both enjoying breakout seasons as young quarterbacks, but Ryan has been much more efficient thanks to a dominant running game and healthier skill players around him. Expect the Falcons' rookie passer to stay on a roll, especially with the Broncos' defense having no answers for Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood on the ground keeping former Broncos kicker Jason Elam busy on extra points. With Denver's backfield woes, there's just too much pressure on Cutler to deliver in a one-dimensional offense. Falcons 31, Broncos 24.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts. Sage Rosenfels' fourth-quarter meltdown in the teams' previous matchup was an early spark the Colts needed to stay in the playoff hunt, and stealing a victory from the Steelers last week has now made them a probable wild-card team. Peyton Manning, despite being a little off with Marvin Harrison, is rolling again by spreading the ball to all of his receivers all over the field. Their pass defense should keep Rosenfels in a funk, and this game also gives them a great opportunity to get Joseph Addai running well again. Colts 30, Texans 13.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Adrian Peterson is doing his best to carry the Vikings with his dazzling rushing performances, but you can bet the Bucs' defense will work to make Gus Frerotte beat them. Peterson will still get his yards, but Frerotte's interceptions will catch up to him this week, as the Bucs excel at making big plays off turnovers at home. With an injury-riddled backfield, the Bucs will have a hard time running on the Vikes, so it will take Jeff Garcia to grind out a win with big help from the other side. Buccaneers 17, Vikings 16.
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins. The Raiders' offense is incapable of moving the ball in any which way at the moment, and Dolphins' pass rush, led by league-leading sack artist Joey Porter, won't help them get their mess of a passing game sorted out. This is your typical, long cross-country trip that will produce bad results for the road team. The Dolphins won't need to get fancy with the "Wildcat" this week -- Oakland will have enough problems with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams in the straight-up running game. Dolphins 27, Raiders 0.
Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals. Considering the Giants' pass rush couldn't even thwart Donovan McNabb last week, the Bengals' complete lack of pressure will allow him to have another big passing day. They also lack the linebackers and safeties to keep up with Brian Westbrook. This will make backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick drop back often to try to keep up, and it doesn't take a Harvard education to know that Jim Johnson will have the defense swarming Fitz ѿ with or without the blitz. Philly rolls over Cincy. Eagles 35, Bengals 13.
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers. Both teams fired their coaches in midseason and replaced them with defensive-mined former NFL linebackers, Jim Haslett and Mike Singletary, to get a spark. The Rams' promise they showed in wins over Washington and Dallas is clearly gone as they totally disappeared against the Jets last week. The 49ers are coming off a short week, but their fight from Monday night will carry over into a game with their divisional archrivals. Expect Singletary to have the more physical team, with Frank Gore pounding away for big yardage on the ground and his front seven jumping all over Marc Bulger. 49ers 24, Rams 14.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars. Both teams like to play and win with physical football, with a focus on running the ball and stopping the run. The Titans have been consistently better at doing both, and that's why they're 9-0, five games better than the Jaguars. The Jags have a good chance to drag the AFC South leaders down to an upset, but it's hard to discount the Titans finding a way to win. Recently, with the running game slowed, it's been Kerry Collins coming through. This week, it will be game-changing plays by the defense on the road. Titans 20, Jaguars 17.
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills. It's November on Lake Erie, and scheduling this game for Monday night will add some more chill along with the typical winds of the season. The Bills get what they needed after losing three division games in a row -- a game outside the AFC East, at home, in prime time, where they get their emotions and intensity back at a high level. Expect Trent Edwards, with help from Marshawn Lynch, to break out of his slump against a struggling Browns' defense. Brady Quinn will come back down to earth against a hungry, angry and pumped-up host defense. Bills 26, Browns 13.
Stats of the Week
Week 10 straight up: 10-4
Season-to-date straight up: 93-51
Vinnie Iyer is a staff writer for Sporting News. Email him at viyer@sportingnews.com.
12
Campaign '08: Endorsing Eli Manning as MVP
Wednesday, November 12, 2008, 10:29 a.m. ET
With that rather big presidential election out of the way, now the political pundits can give way to the pigskin prognosticators again. And if you've turned on the tube lately, you have seen plenty of campaigning for the 2008 NFL MVP with those who cover the league championing different candidates.
Clinton Portis, maybe with help from his first name, has gotten some proverbial votes with his fine work in Washington.
Drew Brees has wowed everyone statistically with his efforts in New Orleans, but it hasn't led to progress in the standings.
Even though Albert Haynesworth has been the best performer in Tennessee, there's been more push to get Kerry Collins' name on the ballot.
Adrian Peterson is running a strong campaign by keeping Minnesota on the move. Meanwhile, perhaps inspired by John McCain, two-time MVP Kurt Warner is trying to get elected for a third term in Arizona.
I'm here to say that the best and only choice for league MVP this season is Eli Manning. Speaking of Arizona, since gaining momentum by winning that all-important primary in February, your reigning Super Bowl MVP has been an impeccable leader in the New York Giants' title defense.
Critics will point out Manning is only 12th in passing yardage and tied for seventh in passing touchdowns. They'll point to his approval -- er, make that passer -- rating of 88.8 being good for only 15th.
But only Collins, the man Manning was drafted to replace in New York, can claim to be better in the most important of all NFL numbers: Victories. With a harder-to-please constituency, Manning has delivered whenever called upon to lead the Giants to their 8-1 start.
He has pleased his home crowd by going 5-0 in Giants Stadium. He is 6-0 against NFC teams, including strong decisions over his closest competitors in Washington, Dallas and Philadelphia.
Manning hasn't just been propped up by a dominant defense and a powerful running game. His maturity and intangibles as a leader have showed up every week. He is great at opening (109 rating in the first quarter) and closing games (98.8 rating in the fourth quarter. He also shines when the game is tied (113.4), in two-minute drills (122.8) and on third down (102.8).
Manning has done much of this without consistent play from his top receiving mate, Plaxico Burress. He continues to get the most out of Amani Toomer, Kevin Boss, Steve Smith, Domenik Hixon and Derrick Ward in the passing game. After hearing about how he was too locked into Burress and his shaky completion percentage, he is now up to 60.5 by spreading the ball around so well.
There have been many slings and arrows thrown Manning's way throughout his still-young NFL career, but he has grown into a unflappable, durable passer who looks headed for more big-game success than his accomplished brother Peyton.
Don't look up the numbers. Watch the games. When everything is on the line this season, would you rather have someone else leading your team than Eli Manning? When it comes to the NFL in '08, that's the definition of most valuable.
Vinnie Iyer, staff writer for Sporting News, approved this message. Email him at viyer@sportingnews.com.
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