So, A.J. Burnett finally stays off the disabled list for an entire season, and all of the sudden, he is worth millions and millions.

Never mind those 10 trips to the disabled list, or the fact he has pitched 200 innings in a season just three times.

Burnett is the living, breathing definition of a risk.

Some of these people never learn. For example, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman. Has it really been that long, Brian? Have you erased the names of Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright from your memory bank? Are you going down the same road again? Four years ago, you threw nearly $61 million at Pavano and Wright even though both had spent some time on the disabled list. That $61 million bought 25 victories.

Free agent pitchers scare general managers to death because of the injury risk involved. After winning the World Series in 2004, the Red Sox let Pedro Martinez walk because they didn't think he had four more years left in him. The Mets did. The Mets were wrong. Martinez won 32 games during the four years of that $53-million deal.

OK, let's be fair. Burnett is 31 years old and is coming off a season in which he was an absolute horse. He won 18 times, pitched 221 1/3 innings and struck out 231 hitters. If he can come close to repeating those numbers over the next four seasons, he'll be worth whatever the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, etc., are willing to pay.

"I characterize his stuff as electric," new Yankees first baseman/outfielder Nick Swisher told reporters this week. "He's one of those guys where it feels like every time you step in the box, it's an uncomfortable at-bat. He would be a huge pickup if we could get him."

If Burnett stays healthy. If, if, if. There are no sure things in free agency. Let the buyer beware. It's just that Burnett's issues are right there in black and white. Two trips to the disabled list in 2007. Three trips in 2006. His 2003 and 2004 seasons were shortened by injuries, too.

If free agency is based on potential, he is a great signing. At his best, Burnett is as good as almost anyone.

Maybe he makes perfect sense for the Yankees, who seemingly have no financial limits. If he gets hurt, they'll simply throw millions at another pitcher next winter. It is important to see Burnett the way the Yankees do. He has as much talent as any pitcher on the open market, and the Yankees have the money. And when the Yankees consider the possibility of moving into new Yankee Stadium with a rotation featuring Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes, they think anyone who can get them back to the playoffs is worth the price.

Then again, the Yankees have no idea if they'll end up signing CC Sabathia and/or Derek Lowe. It's impossible to know what they're thinking, but they could view Burnett as a fallback position.

The Red Sox reportedly are interested in Burnett as well. They have plenty of money, too, and have seen enough of Burnett to know how well he is capable of pitching. He is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA in eight starts against them in his career. In 11 career starts against the Yankees, Burnett is 6-3 with a 2.43 ERA. Then again, the Red Sox simply might be attempting to bid up Burnett's price without intending to sign him.

Say this for Burnett: his timing always has been terrific. Though he has pitched 200 innings just three times, they've come at the right time. The first time was the year he became arbitration eligible. He also surpassed 200 innings the two times he was headed for free agency.

He has made $25 million over the past three seasons and just opted out of a deal that would have paid him $24 million over the next two seasons. He'll probably get $15-$20 million a year for at least three years, perhaps four, depending on how many teams get into the mix.

In a market that likely will make Sabathia the highest-paid pitcher in history, in a market in which Lowe might be looking to match the seven-year, $126-million contract the Giants gave Barry Zito two years ago, anything is possible.

But before winning 18 games this season, Burnett never had won more than 12 in a season. In three seasons with the Blue Jays he was 38-26.

Burnett could turn out to be a bargain. If he is winning games in October for the Yankees next season, you'll know how it worked out. This free agent market features starting pitchers who are more durable than Burnett, but few who are better. As long as the Yankees know he is a risk.

Richard Justice is a columnist for the Houston Chronicle and a regular contributor to Sporting News.

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The Cubs are interested. The Astros could be interested. He makes sense for the Phillies, Braves, Dodgers, Brewers, Angels and Rangers. And that's just a preliminary list.

This free-agent buying season is going to be played out on two distinctly different playing fields. CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Derek Lowe, etc., are at the highest level.

They'll get huge money and won't be impacted by the economic crisis. But for dozens of other free agents, it could be a different marketplace. Fewer dollars, fewer years.

That's why Johnson is such an intriguing player to have on this market. Yes, he's 45 years old. Yes, he has pitched 4,039 innings. Those numbers say there's risk involved.

There are no sure things. But based on what he did last season -- and based on what he has done for most of his career -- he's worth the risk.

He still pitched 184 innings. He still had an ERA of 3.91. He still had 174 strikeouts and 18 quality starts.

If he can simply repeat those numbers, he'd be worth more than $8 million. He's not worth the $15 million he made last season. He knows this and offered to play for half that amount.

For teams with a real ceiling on what they can spend, Johnson might represent a reasonable, short-term investment. He'll make a decent buck in 2009, but he won't get a three- or four-year commitment.

There's a whole class of free agents like that. All carry some risk. Carl Pavano and Mike Hampton have injury histories. Brad Penny is coming off a tough year. Andy Pettitte is 36 years old and had a bad September.

They're gambles, but isn't giving Sabathia a six-year deal at $140 million a gamble? As teams worry about a decline in sponsorships and season-ticket sales, more of them are searching for short-term deals.

The Diamondbacks apparently offered Johnson around $3 million for the 2009 season. As much as Johnson apparently wanted to finish his career in Arizona, he was unwilling to take that large a cut from $15 million.

There were stretches last season when he seemed done. He was 6-7 with 5.23 ERA on July 12. After that, he was almost as good as ever, going 5-3 with a 2.41 ERA in his final 13 starts.

He finished with 8.46 strikeouts per nine innings -- sixth-best in the National League. He had a 3.93 strikeouts-to-walk ratio -- third-best in the NL.

He's likely to have a long list of offers, but the Cubs may make the most sense. They've offered Ryan Dempster a four-year, $50-million deal and may wait a few more days for him to accept or decline.

Signing with the Cubs would reunite Johnson with Lou Piniella, who was his manager for a time in Seattle. The Cubs have made an offer for Jake Peavy, but the longer the thing plays out, the less likely it seems the Cubs and Padres are going to have a match.

Johnson, however, makes sense for every team seeking pitching. He might be the right guy to put in a clubhouse with those young Dodgers pitchers. Returning to Seattle to get his 300th victory would have a nice sentimental value.

He had a nice run in Houston in 1998, going 10-1, and with the Astros unable to re-sign Randy Wolf so far, Johnson surely would appeal to team owner Drayton McLane.

If the Phillies can't re-sign Jamie Moyer, Johnson would make sense. The Brewers will be shopping for pitching if they lose Ben Sheets and Sabathia. If Johnson prefers a warmer climate, there's always the launching pad in Arlington Stadium.

The Angels could also get into the mix if they fail to land Sabathia. In the end, Johnson will have his choice.

He's a different kind of guy. Don't rule out him going back to the Diamondbacks and trying to find a number both sides can live with. But, given that Arizona just laid off 31 employees, the Diamondbacks simply may not have the money to spend.

However, if the D-backs think they're going to find someone better, someone available at a reasonable price, they're probably wrong. For about a dozen other teams, Johnson represents an opportunity to get better.

Richard Justice is a columnist for the Houston Chronicle and a regular contributor to Sporting News.

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The New York Yankees are in a buying mood.

That means you, CC Sabathia. You, too, Mark Teixeira. Name your price, fellas. Your ship has come in. As for Derek Lowe, Ben Sheets, A.J. Burnett and Manny Ramirez, keep those telephone lines open. The Yankees have money to spend and holes to fill.

Yes, baseball's free agent supermarket officially opens Friday, but that's true only in a technical sense.

No one -- not a player, not another team -- is going to do much until the Yankees are finished. Once general manager Brian Cashman is done, every other team can get to work.

When the Yankees finish shopping, there might be a new market set for the rest of a very lucky free agent class. Every other free agent will have a new bargaining chip, if not a new contract.

Just consider how much money some free agents have already turned down. Sabathia didn't blink when the Brewers put more than $100 million on the table. Likewise, Ramirez wasn't swayed by the Dodgers' reported offer for $60 million over three years.

What's unclear is how many serious players there will be in free agency. The Mets are shopping for a closer, the Red Sox for a hitter. The Dodgers and Angels would just like to re-sign Ramirez and Teixeira, respectively.

The vast majority of general managers, though, will be shopping for bargains. They have budgets and they are sticking to them.

That prudent approach briefly was adopted by the Yankees. Just last winter, Cashman was preaching the gospel of player development. He walked away from a Johan Santana trade because he was unwilling to surrender his top young players.

Cashman still is talking the talk, but, suddenly, he is going to try it the old-fashioned Yankee way. That's what missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993 will do for a good, sound philosophy. Cashman still hopes to build the Yankees from the ground up, but he has some pressing needs that can't immediately be filled by the farm system.

If you don't think this is fair, tough luck. Some teams always are going to have more revenue streams than others. That's true in the NFL, too. Commissioner Bud Selig's revenue-sharing program has given every team a chance to succeed. But there's a smaller window and less margin for error if you're the Rays, Marlins, Royals or Pirates.

This offseason is a perfect storm for the Yankees. The club is getting more than $75 million in payroll off the books and is about to move into a new stadium that will produce even more dollars.

The Yankees have two sure things in their rotation: Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain. Free agent Mike Mussina hasn't said if he'll pitch another year, and the Yankees haven't yet made an offer to free agent Andy Pettitte. They're still hoping Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy can contribute, but they want something more certain. Like Sabathia. And Lowe.

Sabathia can name his price. He might prefer Southern California, but the Yankees will do everything to bring him to the East Coast. The six-year, $137.5-million deal Santana signed with the Mets last offseason will be a starting point.

Cashman has said he has a priority list. If Sabathia is No. 1, Burnett and Teixeira probably are a close second.

The Yankees won four championships in five years with clubs built around starting pitching and Mariano Rivera. With a rotation of, say, Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Chamberlain and Pettitte, they'd begin the 2009 season as the solid favorites to bring a 27th championship to the new stadium.

Just be prepared for at least a few days -- and maybe a few weeks -- of smoke-and-mirrors reports. Those Scott Boras clients (Teixeira, Ramirez, Lowe, Jason Varitek and Pudge Rodriguez) will be spotted in airports and hotel suites around the country.

Maybe they were really there. No one knows. No one knows where they will end up, either.

Manny to the Giants? Don't laugh. Teixeira to the Orioles? It's possible.

All that's certain is that the Yankees will set the tone in the free agent game. This is baseball's second season, and when the Yankees are involved, it's that much more fun for everyone.

Richard Justice is a columnist for the Houston Chronicle and a regular contributor to Sporting News.

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Brad Lidge.

Everything the Mets do this offseason should be geared toward finding someone to do for them what Brad Lidge did for the Phillies in 2008.

As far as offseason goals go, that's about as simple as it gets. The Mets may need tweaking in other areas, but until their single glaring weakness is fixed, those other things won't matter.

Here's an idea: Mets GM Omar Minaya should display a large photo of Lidge somewhere in his office and be forced to look at it first thing every morning.

He should make Lidge the background on his desktop and wear a Brad Lidge locket around his neck.

Minaya can't take his eye off the ball. He should be reminded again and again that the Phillies couldn't have won without Lidge. Had he pitched for the Mets, they might be the ones being measured for rings.

So when Francisco Rodriguez asks for an astronomical amount of money, Minaya should think long and hard about Brad Lidge before he answers.

Likewise, if the Mariners want too much for J.J. Putz, Minaya should remind himself of how Lidge transformed the Phillies.

Check out the numbers. The Mets and Phillies each scored 799 runs. Pretty close, right?

The Mets had a better rotation. Their starters had a lower ERA. They got more innings and more victories from their rotation than the Phillies did.

But the Mets had 14 more blown saves than the Phillies. Mets relievers made good on 60 percent of their save chances; the Phillies converted 76 percent.

The Phillies didn't lose a game in which they led after eight innings. The Mets lost seven times when leading after the eighth.

Whatever chance the Mets had of winning the National League East probably ended when Billy Wagner pitched his final game on August 2.

Mets manager Jerry Manuel did a nice job mixing and matching his relievers for a while, but by those final three weeks, the bullpen was a disaster with an ERA approaching six.

Manuel was using three and four relievers to finish almost every game. And it wasn't nearly enough.

Mets fans are focused on Minaya making wholesale changes. They want to see no more of Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez, Pedro Feliciano, etc.

They're missing the big picture. If Minaya acquires a closer, all those pitchers will assume other roles.

They've all had success in non-closing roles and might still be valuable in those roles.

There's a practical side to this as well. Minaya can't replace everyone. He still has almost his entire bullpen for relatively little money for another year.

He shouldn't stop with K-Rod. Let's face it, he's not limited by finances the way other general managers are.

The Mets may talk about fiscal responsibility, but in the end, they've got the resources to turn a weakness into a strength.

Doug Brocail and Russ Springer are both free agents. So are Bob Howry, Shawn Chacon and Darren Oliver.

Signing a first-rate closer is expensive, but filling in quality pieces in front of the closer isn't.

The Mets have had two embarrassing September meltdowns. There have been problems beyond the bullpen, but this season's problems began with the bullpen.

Now about Francisco Rodriguez. He's just 26 years old. He converted 62 of 69 save chances in 2008.

Last season was the first time he has made more than 69 appearances, so he should have more good years left in him.

He appears to have the temperament to thrive in the fishbowl that is New York, which is not like other places. Losses are magnified. Tabloids feed off slumps.

That's probably more true for a closer than any other position in the city, except for maybe the quarterbacks of the Jets and Giants.

Rodriguez has 208 career saves. He has pitched in a World Series at 20 and has been to the postseason four other times. He's accustomed to pitching with a lot on the line.

In the end, it's just money. It'll be a lot of money. Lidge's three-year, $37.5-million deal with the Phillies will be a starting point.

It's worth it. No number is too high. Not when you consider what the Mets have been through the last two years, not when you consider how he would turn a weakness into a strength.

Minaya's work won't be finished after he finds a closer, but the transformation of the Mets will have begun.

Richard Justice is a columnist for the Houston Chronicle and a regular contributor to Sporting News.

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Jake Peavy is worth whatever the Padres are asking for him. Any other questions?

Should we move on to free agent first baseman Mark Teixeira and free agent lefthander CC Sabathia while we're gathered here?

I know, I know. Your local general manager is going to tell you things aren't as simple as they seem. He is going to acknowledge that Peavy is a front-of-the-rotation guy. Only 27, Peavy is under contract for the next five seasons at an average salary of $15.6 million.

That's not cheap, but as Roger Clemens once put it so eloquently: "The going rate is the going rate."

At that salary, Peavy should be winning 17 games and throwing 220 innings every season. He has done that just once, however. And there's more. His career ERA in that cavernous San Diego ballpark is a more than a run lower than on the road.

Peavy has already pitched 1,261 innings in his career and dealt with a barking elbow for a time last season. He doesn't pitch deep into games, either. In the past two seasons, he has recorded just 16 outs after the seventh inning.

Your friendly local general manager, using all of this information to make his case against acquiring Peavy, is dwelling on the negative. That's why he needs a smart person like you to slap him in the back of his head -- in a friendly sort of way.

Your general manager is going to tell you how his owner is all over him to lower the payroll, and he is wondering if Jon Lieber has another season left in him. Or Freddie Garcia or Jason Jennings or Paul Byrd. Those pitchers all will be in a different tax bracket than Peavy next season.

The thing is, Peavy is a rarity -- one of the guys who elevates your team the moment he walks in the door. He is good for 200 innings and a sub-3.00 ERA.

Ask your team's general manager how many starting pitchers he'd rather have than Peavy. Sabathia? Sure. Roy Halladay? Of course. And there are Johan Santana, Cole Hamels, Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee.

We can argue about a dozen other guys. The point is that Peavy is on the short list when you sit down to discuss baseball's best starting pitchers.

For the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Braves and Yankees, he might be the difference between making and missing the playoffs.

Don't give me that malarkey about all those young pitchers in your system and how they might do what Peavy will do for a fraction of the cost.

Don't go down that road. I praised Yankees' general manager Brian Cashman effusively last winter when he had the guts to walk away from a Johan Santana trade rather than give up a slew of his young arms, specifically Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy.

My logic failed me at the intersection of experience and expectations. Santana is money in the bank. He pitched 234 1/3 innings and had a 2.53 ERA. He went 16-7 and would have won 20 games if the Mets' bullpen had been better.

Hughes and Kennedy? Great arms. Great talents. No track record. They were a combined 0-8 with a 7.45 ERA in 17 starts for the Yankees in 2008.

Had Cashman shipped Hughes and Kennedy to the Twins for Santana, the Yankees would have been in the playoffs for a 14th consecutive year.

Which brings us back to Peavy. The Padres are shopping him this offseason, and any team that can take on his salary would be shrewd to close the deal as quickly as possible.

For the Braves, that probably means giving up Tommy Hanson, their top pitching prospect. So far, Braves general manager Frank Wren appears unwilling to do that. Wren must decide how good the Braves are going to be in 2009. If he thinks they'll be good enough to win, he should make the deal. If he thinks, it'll be 2010 or 2011 before the team is a contender -- and if he really believes in Hanson -- he might have to take a pass.

Would the Dodgers trade lefthander Clayton Kershaw? Probably not, considering the money they're going to have to spend to keep Manny Ramirez.

The Cubs? They have young position players, but not pitching. The Angels? They might have the kids to make it happen. The Astros and Yankees both want Peavy, but have thin minor league systems.

On the other side of the bargaining table, Padres general manager Kevin Towers isn't going to get everything he wants. Quality pitching is in such short supply, and the weak economy has left teams jittery about spending big money.

Unlike last year when Astros general manager Ed Wade kept his discussions regarding Brad Lidge under wraps and then didn't get nearly enough for him, Towers has let everyone know Peavy is available. He has been fielding calls for almost a month, so he has an idea of what's out there.

Towers isn't going to restock his minor league system with a single deal, but he'll do well. And the team that ends up with Peavy will do really well.

Richard Justice is a columnist for the Houston Chronicle and a regular contributor to Sporting News.

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