Kerry Wood, or Ryan Dempster?

Trips to the disabled list, or innings pitched?

For Cubs general manager Jim Hendry, it took about one nanosecond to make the decision.

To make another run at an elusive World Series appearance, the Cubs needed to re-sign Dempster, the starter, to a long-term deal. To do that, they could not afford to keep Wood, the star-crossed closer, by offering a similar long-term deal.

Hendry separated sentiment from logic by deciding to cut the Cubs' long-running ties to Wood, freeing up money to sign Dempster to a $52 million deal. Hendry had grown close to Wood during their time together in the organization, but he had to do what was best for the Cubs.

Make no mistake, Wood wanted to return to the club with which he always has been the good soldier. He switched from starting to relieving. He felt guilty about being ineffective during a three-year, $32.5-million contract that expired in 2006 and played each of the past two seasons under one-year deals. He truly wanted to help the Cubs break their World Series jinx.

Hendry went through the same agony with righthander Mark Prior and made the correct call with him, too. Prior signed with San Diego last offseason but still has not appeared in a major league game since Aug. 10, 2006. Freed of the burden of waiting for Prior, the Cubs have won two consecutive National League Central titles.

Cubs manager Lou Piniella and Prior never would have worked anyway. Piniella can sometimes barely tolerate pitchers; a perceived prima donna like Prior paired with Piniella would have been a doomed relationship. Piniella did like Wood, who is tougher than Prior. In the end, though, it was all a matter of dollars and sense.

Dempster tossed 206 2/3 innings and made 33 starts in an All-Star performance this past season. The Cubs have no one in-house who could have replaced that production. Wood ranked in the middle of the N.L. pack inr save success rate at 85 percent (34-of-40.) The Cubs can replace that, at a lower salary, with righthander Carlos Marmol.

There is also the matter of durability. Wood, who began his career as a starter, has been on the disabled list 12 times since opening day 1999. He had problems only with a blister condition this season, but there always will be uncertainty around Wood.

"Kerry has done everything this organization has asked for, been a warrior the last couple of years," Hendy said. "He's come back and health-wise stood the test of time, taken the ball every day we needed, and had no hang-ups.

"We're just in a situation, as Kerry fully understands, that that length of deal, for the kind of salary he'd command right now, is not our first priority. We felt it was time Kerry goes out and does what's best for him and his family, and gets a huge multiyear deal if possible."

Where will Wood land?

Arizona makes sense. Wood now lives in the Phoenix area, and the Diamondbacks are unsettled at closer. Free agent righthander Brandon Lyon, who closed for Arizona for most of the 2008 season, allows the ball to put be put in play too often, and he was terrible in the second half this past season (1-2, 8.46 ERA, 40 hits allowed in 22 1/3 innings).

Texas is also a strong possibility. The Rangers have thirsted for Wood ever since he was the fourth pick overall in the 1995 draft out of nearby Grand Prairie High School.

The Rangers need an infusion of charisma. Their most popular figure is club president Nolan Ryan, the Hall of Fame pitcher. Adding Wood would increase the Rangers' profile in their market and help a closer-less bullpen. Lefthander C.J. Wilson had the job much of this past season and became only the fifth closer since 1969 to have 20-plus saves with an ERA of more than 6.00.

And what of the Cubs' bullpen?

Chicago picked up righthander Kevin Gregg in a trade with Florida to pitch the eighth inning and provide insurance should Marmol struggle. But Gregg tied for the major league lead in blown saves this past season with nine in 38 chances.

Marmol is a risk. He has breathtaking stuff -- 40 hits allowed and 114 strikeouts in 87 1/3 innings this season -- but can go into extended funks when he loses sight of the strike zone. Marmol will have to prove himself to the Cubs.

"We're not crowning certain people in November," Hendry said.

Instead, it's the month for goodbyes. And by saying farewell to the Cubs, Wood helped them one more time.

Gerry Fraley, a free-lance baseball writer based in St. Louis, is a regular contributor to Sporting News.

16

San Diego general manager Kevin Towers has the worst job in baseball.

He must preside over the second dismantling of the franchise in 15 years.

Towers arrived about two years after former owner Tom Werner ordered a fire sale in 1993. Towers showed his considerable skills by turning around a bad situation in a hurry. The Padres reached the playoffs in 1996 and the World Series in 1998.

Now comes another storm. This one makes the Werner era look like a day at a San Diego beach.

The national economy stinks, and the Padres were not much better this season. Current owner John Moores is in the midst of a traumatic and potentially costly divorce. Moores could end up selling up to 49 percent of the club.

There is only one response in the situation.

Slash the payroll.

The Padres finished last in the National League West this season with a payroll of $73.6 million. They likely will finish last against next season, with a payroll of about $35 million.

A much lower payroll makes it easier for Moores to find needed buyers for a piece of the team. It also makes it easier for Moores to sell the team, if it comes to that point.

A lower payroll also makes it easier for Moores to keep the team and reap a profit, a popular theory among conspiracy buffs.

The Padres moved into Petco Park, built with public funds, in 2004, and it keeps spewing revenue. Despite putting a terrible product on the field, the Padres drew 2.4 million customers this season.

The onus for cutting the payroll falls upon Towers. The only way for him to get to the lower number is dumping icons.

That led to the recent clumsy handling of closer Trevor Hoffman, the all-time saves leader.

The Padres pulled off the table the offer of a one-year contract for Hoffman, which is their right. The club did not rule out trying again to re-sign Hoffman, a free agent.

The problem was the club went silent after the decision, forcing Towers into the uncomfortable position of throwing out ``no comments'' when asked to explain what had happened. Hoffman deserved better treatment.

At the same time, Towers is trying to trade ace righthander Jake Peavy, who will earn a minimum of $63 million over the next five seasons. What seems like an easier task is actually a test.

With no-trade protection in his contract, Peavy can shape his future. Peavy and his agent, Barry Axelrod, started by giving the Padres a list of five clubs to which he would be agreeable to a deal: Atlanta, the Chicago Cubs, Houston, the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis.

Towers is left trying to deal from a position of weakness. Potential trading partners recognize that he must unload Peavy. As much as everyone in the game likes Towers, no one will give him a break here. It's that kind of business.

The five clubs on Peavy's list have been shrewd enough not to bid against each other and inflate the market. Towers would like to draw the New York Yankees into the equation, a sure-fire way to raise the price, but Peavy is uncomfortable in the biggest-city environment.

For now, Towers plays a waiting game.

``As of right now, there hasn't been a deal that's been presented to us that we could accept,'' Towers told reporters. ``The next thing is (for) Barry to sit down with Jake and say `Doesn't look like anything's happening with L.A. Nothing's more than likely happening with the Chicago Cubs and as of now not with the (Braves). As of now, you're probably going to remain a Padre.' ''

The Padres' hope is that Peavy will never accept playing for what will be a terrible team next season and expand the group of teams to which he would accept a trade.

The Padres' fear is Peavy will remain and either gobble up most of the payroll next season or force the club to trade him for the equivalent of pennies on the dollar.

That tells the magnitude of San Diego's plight. The Padres have a Cy Young winner to deal, and it brings nothing but headaches. If Kevin Towers makes something out of this mess, imposed from above, it will be remarkable.

Gerry Fraley, a free-lance baseball writer based in St. Louis, is a regular contributor to Sporting News.

4

Baseball awards season serves as a reminder that the Cleveland Indians can get back to contender status in a hurry.

Lefthander Cliff Lee should win the A.L. Cy Young Award on Thursday. And Grady Sizemore already received his second Gold Glove, giving the Indians a top-flight center fielder who had a slugging percentage of better than .500 this season.

Lee and Sizemore headline a core of talent that can lift the Indians from this season's lackluster .500 performance -- if that core is given the necessary help.

A year ago at this time, Indians general manager Mark Shapiro made a significant strategic error by deciding not to tinker with a club that fell one win short of reaching the World Series. The Indians' 2008 showing served as a reminder to every general manager that if you are just standing still with your club, others are shooting past you.

It will take more than the firing of bullpen coach Luis Isaac, who had been with the franchise for 44 years, to get the Indians back into the playoffs.

Shapiro did not ask for it, but here's a handy to-do list for the Indians this offseason:

Get faster

Cleveland executives cling to the notion that speed is overrated. They are in the minority on that.

The World Series clubs -- Philadelphia and Tampa Bay -- had a high amount of speed. So did the other teams -- Boston and the L.A. Dodgers -- that reached their respective League Championship Series.

All four of those clubs ran the bases aggressively and could create runs, a skill the Indians lacked. Cleveland ranked 12th in the A.L. in stolen bases with 77 and went 23-42 in games in which it didn't homer.

The Indians need more speed for their defense, too. In the opinion of several scouts, Cleveland ranked among the worst defensive teams in the majors because it also was among the slowest team in the majors.

Balls that should have been caught went through the gaps. Sizemore earned his Gold Glove the hard way, by having to range nearly from foul line to foul line.

Fix the bullpen

Philadelphia rode the N.L.'s best bullpen from start to finish. Tampa Bay made its leap from worst to first because its bullpen dramatically improved.

On the flip side, Cleveland ranked 13th in the A.L. with a 5.11 ERA. That was one spot behind Detroit and one spot ahead of Texas. Detroit was the league's most disappointing club, and Texas, as usual, was never a factor.

That the Indians finished with a .500 record hints at what this team could do with just a workmanlike bullpen. Cleveland relievers were 19-25 with that shoddy 5.11 ERA. By comparison, Tampa Bay's bullpen went 31-17 and cut its ERA by more than two runs to 3.55 (Rays relievers had an A.L.-worst 6.16 ERA in 2007).

The first step for Cleveland is to settle on a true closer. The position was unsettled all season, and the Indians had an A.L.-low 31 saves to go with 20 blown saves. The answer cannot be righthander Rafael Betancourt, who mysteriously lost the sink on his fastball. The Indians must ease him back into pressure spots.

Add contact hitters

As previously mentioned, the Indians were slow. On top of that, they didn't make much contact. That is a bad combination.

Cleveland had the A.L.'s third-highest strikeout total with 7.49 Ks per game. They had three players among the A.L.'s top 12 in strikeouts: catcher Kelly Shoppach (133), Sizemore (130) and shortstop Jhonny Peralta (126).

Those wasted outs made this an inconsistent offense. The Indians could explode at times but then go silent for an extended stretch. They scored more than 10 runs in a game 18 times, but ranked sixth in the A.L. with 4.97 runs per game.

Other issues to address

The Indians must decide whether to play Peralta at shortstop or at third base, and whether to play Victor Martinez at catcher or first base. And they cannot allow themselves to be held hostage again by designated hitter Travis Hafner's lingering and mysterious shoulder problems.

There are enough good pieces already in place for Shapiro and Co. to make something of this team next season.

Gerry Fraley, a free-lance baseball writer based in St. Louis, is a regular contributor to Sporting News.

5

The Colorado Rockies aren't getting much for him.

A day after a proposed deal with the St. Louis Cardinals collapsed, the Rockies turned to the Oakland Athletics. According to several major league officials, the light-hitting A's are about to obtain Holliday for a less-than-inspiring package of pitchers that could include declining closer Huston Street.

In the last three seasons, Street has 23 blown saves in 94 chances for the second-worst success rate at 75.5. Only the Pittsburgh Pirates' Matt Capps is worse in that span, with 17 blown saves in 57 chances for a 70.2 rate.

The proposed deal will look a bit better for the Rockies if they also end up with Carlos Gonzalez, a talented but undisciplined and free-swinging 23-year-old outfielder.

The St. Louis package was going to include outfielder Ryan Ludwick, who made the N.L. All-Star team in a breakthrough season, and a major league-ready pitcher, probably righthander Mitchell Boggs. The Cardinals came to their senses and realized they needed pitching help, not another bat in an already overcrowded outfield.

Why weren't more teams clamoring for Holliday?

Two reasons: his contract status, and his numbers within the numbers.

Holliday can become a free agent after the 2009 season. Colorado has already determined it will be unable to work out a long-term extension with Holliday.

St. Louis briefly clung to the notion that being near his Oklahoma home would convince Holliday to stay with them.

Then the Cardinals remembered uber-agent Scott Boras represents Holliday. Boras likes to get his high-profile clients onto the free-agent market, where he can skillfully play teams against each other. The term "hometown discount" doses not exist in Boras' vocabulary.

If and when Holliday reaches the free-agent market, Boras will do his best to eliminate another term: home-park advantage.

Holliday has become a quality major league player who consistently has good at-bats, but playing home games at Coors Field, whose vast outfield gaps will always favor hitters, has increased his numbers and his value.

Consider the past three seasons:

In that span, Holliday hit 62 homers and drove in 219 runs, with a .669 slugging percentage and 1.098 OPS at Coors. He was either first or second in the N.L. in each category. On the road, the numbers were significantly lower. Holliday had 33 homers and 120 RBIs, with a .486 slugging percentage and an .858 OPS. He ranked 24th or worse in the league in each category.

Take Holliday out of Coors, and he turns into a good but not great offensive performer. His defense, according to several major league scouts, is typical of an average left fielder who does not throw well.

The Cardinals saved themselves from making a major mistake by backing away from Holliday. St. Louis must use its appealing resources on pitching.

A losing record (38-40) for the final three months dropped the Cardinals to fourth in the National League Central, but they had 86 wins. A few tweaks could turn this club into a contender again.

What was the N.L.'s most ineffective bullpen this season needs a closer and at least two situational lefthanders, something manager Tony La Russa craves.

For the second consecutive season, the rotation cannot count on ace righthander Chris Carpenter. He recently underwent surgery to transport a nerve near the right elbow. Carpenter is also dealing with a nerve disorder in the right shoulder.

"Whatever Carp's situation, we have other needs to address,'' La Russa said. "What we can do will largely be dictated by the market.''

St. Louis missed the playoffs because it could not hold late leads. The bullpen led the N.L. with 31 losses and 31 blown saves. The Cardinals lost a league-high 14 games when leading after seven innings. The Chicago Cubs, who won the N.L. Central, were 82-4 when leading after seven innings. Milwaukee, which won the wild card out of the Central, was 68-9 when leading after seven.

The Cardinals did not have enough to reel in the Cubs, but they would have surpassed Milwaukee with a better bullpen.

Gerry Fraley, a free-lance baseball writer based in St. Louis, is a regular contributor to Sporting News.

3

As former Philadelphia general manager Pat Gilllick said throughout the World Series, the Phillies owed a great debt of thanks to his predecessor: Ed Wade.

And it was not because Wade took Gillick up on a trade proposal that sent closer Brad Lidge, the most valuable Phillie, to Philadelphia after last season for disappointing outfielder Michael Bourn.

Gillick recognized that in eight seasons on the job, Wade did the heavy lifting that put the Phillies into position to win. The Phillies' success puts a positive spin on Houston's future.

Wade is now the Astros' general manager, trying to pull off the difficult double of winning in the majors and restocking in the minors. A piece of him nonetheless rode with the Phillies throughout October.

``You're always thinking it could have been you,'' said Wade, who spent 16 years in the Philadelphia organization. ``We were so close, particularly in 2005. At the same time, I've been very gratified about some of the things that have been said.

Wade made the hard decision to rebuild a bankrupt player-development system, even if that meant some hard times at the major-league level.

Wade brought in highly regarded Mike Arbuckle as scouting director and gave him both the resources and freedom to do his job. Together they brought in core players such as lefthander Cole Hamels, the World Series most valuable player; first baseman Ryan Howard, second baseman Chase Utley and left fielder Pat Burrell.

Wade also made the vital change at manager, replacing tightly wound Larry Bowa with the more relaxed and communicative Charlie Manuel. Wade had seen Manuel at work as a special assistant with the Phillies after being dumped by Cleveland.

The locals roasted Wade for hiring a manager perceived as a country yokel, but Manuel had them fooled. He was smart and confident enough to create an easy environment that allowed the young players to flourish.

``Charlie was the right guy at the right time for us,'' Wade said. The Phillies, stuck in the National League East with Atlanta at the height of its powers, did not make the playoffs during Wade's eight years as general manager. That cost Wade his job, but his legacy looks different now.

It took longer than hoped, but Wade changed the direction of the franchise.

``The Phillies weren't used to winning,'' said shortstop Jimmy Rollins, a second-round pick in the 1996 draft. ``But Ed Wade did a good job drafting guys that were built to win, but to be good players and stay for the long run. We're now seeing the work that Ed Wade put in.''

Wade skipped the World Series. Nothing personal. With their meetings in the first week of November, general managers no longer feel the need to gather at the World Series and do the groundwork that leads to trades.

Wade was already well into his off-season mode. He needs at least one starting pitcher to go behind ace righthander Roy Oswalt. A rotation that finished 13th in the NL for innings at 5.64 per start put too much of a burden on the bullpen.

San Diego dangles its ace righthanders, Jake Peavy, but a bone-dry minor-league system gives Wade only a few chips to use. Wade used many of the resources in last year's deal for shortstop Miguel Tejada.

With the departure of Brad Ausmus, Wade is also in the market for a catcher. Light-hitting J.R. Towles is not the answer.

Wade must also decide if the club can stay with the super-speedy but inconsistent Bourn, who had a poor .288 on-base percentage. Gillick won that deal.

At the same time, Wade tries to protect and bring the player-development system back to life while dealing with an often-impatient owner: Drayton McLane.

The task is not as difficult as Wade faced when he took over at Philadelphia: an old club that had had three consecutive losing seasons. The Astros dropped out of contention in mid-June but finished well to get 86 wins.

``We were close at the finish,'' Wade said. ``That's the thing that sticks with you. � When you're competitive and want to win, it's hard to see another club in the World Series.''

It was a bit easier this time. Philadelphia still bears the marks of Ed Wade's handiwork.

Gerry Fraley, a free-lance baseball writer based in St. Louis, is a regular contributor to Sporting News.

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